# Value-Based Management

Every asset, financial as well as real, has a **value**. Every investment, project, company and strategic opportunity has a certain value. The ultimate goal of a company is to optimize the values of its assets and to create more. Hence the **value analysis of assets **is crucial for economic success. This is my core competence. Besides classical approaches like **Discounted Cash Flow Analysis **and **Decision Tree Analysis** I evaluate uncertainties and risks with **Monte Carlo Simulation **and **Real Options Analysis**.

The asset analysis shows which investments and projects can increase the value of your company best. It also shows how you can maximize the company’s value by optimizing existing assets.

# Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

**DCF Analysis**** **is the base of every financial valuation. Valid project framing, correct incremental free cash flows, cash flow specific

**risk-adjusted discount rates**and valid key figures are crucial points. This can be very complex in international projects with changing parameters and various uncertainties. I discount each cash flow seperately with its appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate (CCF procedure).

**NPV**(and

**eNPV**including strategic options) is the key figure for value creation and valuation.

**Decision Tree Analysis**evaluates cash flow streams and probabilities of different scenarios. DCF Analysis should always be combined with

**Monte-Carlo-Simulation**and

**Real Options Analysis**.

# Monte Carlo Simulation

** MC-Simulation** is a mathematical technique, which is used to estimate the possible outcomes of uncertain events. MC-Simulations have assessed the

**impact of risk**in many real-life scenarios, such as in artificial intelligence, stock prices, sales forecasting, project management and pricing. They also provide a number of advantages over predictive models with fixed inputs, such as the ability to conduct sensitivity analysis or calculate the correlation of inputs.

**Sensitivity analysis**allows decision-makers to see the impact of individual inputs on a given outcome.

**Correlation analysis**allows them to understand relationships between any input variables. MC-Simulation provides information about what might happen in the future and which parameters are most critical.

**Hedging**,

**early warning systems**and keeping

**strategic options**help to prevent inefficient scenarios and

**minimize risks**. We implement the simulation project-specificly and adjusted to your requirements.

# Real Options Analysis

** ROA** evaluates

**strategic options**of investments and projects with methods of

**financial option theory**. Real options and strategic opportunities can be

**crucial for success**. In businesses with huge uncertainties and when NPV gives not a clear picture, real options are the

**key factors**in evaluation. ROA gives

**instructions**what to do in which situation. Important options are

**options to wait**,

**expand**,

**contract**,

**choose**,

**switch**,

**abandon**, … We also evaluate complex

**compound**and

**rainbow**options.

Hits: 11274